Health Affairs

Health Affairs, 26, no. 2 (2007): w242-w253 (Published online 21 February 2007) doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.26.2.w242 © 2007 by Project HOPE	New Online   Getting Health Reform Done   After the State of the Union   Incremental Reform   E-Health in Developing World   Most-Read Articles in 2009

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Health Spending Projections Through 2016: Modest Changes Obscure Part D’s Impact

John A. Poisal, Christopher Truffer, Sheila Smith, Andrea Sisko, Cathy Cowan, Sean Keehan, Bridget Dickensheets the National Health Expenditure Accounts Projections Team

Growth in national health spending is projected to slow slightly from 6.9 percent in 2005 to 6.8 percent in 2006, marking the fourth consecutive year of a slowing trend. The health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to hold steady in 2006 before resuming its historical upward trend, reaching 19.6 percent of GDP by 2016. Prescription drug spending growth is expected to accelerate to 6.5 percent in 2006. Medicare prescription drug coverage has dramatically changed the distribution of drug spending among payers, but the net effect on aggregate spending is anticipated to be small.

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