Health Affairs, 27, no. 3 (2008): w232-w241 (Published online 29 April 2008) doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.27.3.w232 © 2008 by Project HOPE	New Online   New Issue: China & India   Obesity In China   Pay Cuts For Medicare Docs   Access To Care Woes

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Will Generalist Physician Supply Meet Demands Of An Increasing And Aging Population?

We predict that population growth and aging will increase family physicians’ and general internists’ workloads by 29 percent between 2005 and 2025. We expect a 13 percent increased workload for care of children by pediatricians and family physicians. However, the supply of generalists for adult care, adjusted for age and sex, will increase 7 percent, or only 2 percent if the number of graduates continues to decline through 2008. We expect deficits of 35,000–44,000 adult care generalists, although the supply for care of children should be adequate. These forces threaten the nation’s foundation of primary care for adults.

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