Health Affairs

Health Affairs, 29, no. 3 (2010): 522-529 (Published online 4 February 2010) doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2009.1074 © 2010 by Project HOPE	New Online   July Issue on Reform   Obama Appoints CMS Head   Same Sex, Unequal Access   Patient Bill of Rights   Policy Brief: Medicare 'Doc Fix'

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Health Spending Projections Through 2019: The Recession’s Impact Continues

Christopher J. Truffer^1,*, Sean Keehan², Sheila Smith³, Jonathan Cylus⁴, Andrea Sisko⁵, John A. Poisal⁶, Joseph Lizonitz⁷ and M. Kent Clemens⁸

¹ Christopher J. Truffer (DNHS{at}cms.hhs.gov) is an actuary in the Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), in Baltimore, Maryland.
² Sean Keehan is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
³ Sheila Smith is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
⁴ Jonathan Cylus is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
⁵ Andrea Sisko is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
⁶ John A. Poisal is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group, CMS Office of the Actuary.
⁷ Joseph Lizonitz is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
⁸ M. Kent Clemens is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.

The economic recession and rising unemployment—plus changing demographics and baby boomers aging into Medicare—are among the factors expected to influence health spending during 2009–2019. In 2009 the health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have increased 1.1 percentage points to 17.3 percent—the largest single-year increase since 1960. Average public spending growth rates for hospital, physician and clinical services, and prescription drugs are expected to exceed private spending growth in the first four years of the projections. As a result, public spending is projected to account for more than half of all U.S. health care spending by 2012.

Key Words: Health Spending

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