Posting date: February 22, 2006

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Health Affairs, 10.1377/hlthaff.25.w61
Copyright © 2006 by Project HOPE

Web Exclusives

Health Spending Projections Through 2015: Changes On The Horizon

¹ The authors are with the National Health Statistics Group, Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore, Maryland. Christine Borger is an economist, as are Sheila Smith, Sean Keehan, and Andrea Sisko. John Poisal is the group's deputy director. Christopher Truffer and Kent Clemens are actuaries in the Medicare and Medicaid Cost Estimates Group.

^*Corresponding author.

Abstract

Growth in national health spending is projected to slow in 2005 to 7.4 percent, from a peak of 9.1 percent in 2002. Private health insurance premiums are projected to slow to 6.6 percent in 2005, with a rebound expected in 2007. The introduction of Medicare Part D drug coverage in 2006 produces a dramatic shift in spending across payers but has little net effect on aggregate spending growth. Health spending is expected to consistently outpace gross domestic product (GDP) over the coming decade, accounting for 20 percent of GDP by 2015. [Health Affairs 25 (2006): w61-w73 (published online 22 February 2006; 10.1377/hlthaff.25.w61)]

Key Words: Business Of Health, Hospitals, Medicare, Pharmaceuticals, Physicians, Health Spending

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