Health Affairs

Health Affairs, doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.26.2.w242 (Published online February 21, 2007) © 2007 by Project HOPE	New Online   Getting Health Reform Done   After the State of the Union   Incremental Reform   E-Health in Developing World   Most-Read Articles in 2009

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Health Spending Projections Through 2016: Modest Changes Obscure Part D's Impact

John A. Poisal ^1*, Christopher Truffer ², Sheila Smith ³, Andrea Sisko ⁴, Cathy Cowan ⁵, Sean Keehan ⁶, Bridget Dickensheets ⁷, National Health Expenditures Team

¹ Most of the authors are with the National Health Statistics Group (NHSG), Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore, Maryland. John Poisal is deputy director of the NHSG.
² Chris Truffer is an actuary in the Medicare and Medicaid Cost Estimates Group.
³ Sheila Smith is an economist in the NHSG.
⁴ Andrea Sisko is an economist in the NHSG.
⁵ Cathy Cowan is an economist in the NHSG.
⁶ Sean Keehan is an economist in the NHSG.
⁷ Bridget Dickensheets is an economist in the NHSG. Other members of the National Health Expenditure Accounts Projections Team are listed at the end of this paper.

^*Corresponding author.

Abstract

Growth in national health spending is projected to slow slightly from 6.9 percent in 2005 to 6.8 percent in 2006, marking the fourth consecutive year of a slowing trend. The health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to hold steady in 2006 before resuming its historical upward trend, reaching 19.6 percent of GDP by 2016. Prescription drug spending growth is expected to accelerate to 6.5 percent in 2006. Medicare prescription drug coverage has dramatically changed the distribution of drug spending among payers, but the net effect on aggregate spending is anticipated to be small. [Health Affairs 26, no. 2 (2007): w242-w253 (published online 21 February 2007; 10.1377/ hlthaff.26.2.w242)]

Key Words: Consumer Issues, Hospitals, Medicaid, Medicare, Pharmaceuticals, Health Spending

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