Health Affairs, doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.27.2.w145 (Published online February 26, 2008) © 2008 by Project HOPE	New Online Disparities in Health:   Obama aide on legislation   Smedley call to action   Shrink regulations first   A Real Policy Debate   Top 10 HA Articles Of '07

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Health Spending Projections Through 2017: The Baby-Boom Generation Is Coming To Medicare

¹ Most of the authors are with the National Health Statistics Group (NHSG), Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore, Maryland. Sean Keehan is an economist in the NHSG.
² Andrea Sisko, Sheila Smith, and Cathy Cowan are also economists there.
³ Christopher Truffer and M. Kent Clemens are actuaries in the Medicare and Medicaid Cost Estimates Group. Other members of the National Health Expenditure Accounts Projections Team are listed at the end of this paper.

^*Corresponding author.

Abstract

The outlook for national health spending calls for continued steady growth. Spending growth is projected to be 6.7 percent in 2007, similar to its rate in 2006. Average annual growth over the projection period is expected to be 6.7 percent. Slower growth in private spending toward the end of the period is expected to be offset by stronger growth in public spending. The health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase to 16.3 percent in 2007 and then rise throughout the projection period, reaching 19.5 percent of GDP by 2017. [Health Affairs 27, no. 2 (2008): w145-w155 (published online 26 February 2008; 10.1377/hlthaff.27.2.w145)]

Key Words: Consumer Issues, Hospitals, Medicaid, Medicare, Pharmaceuticals, Health Spending

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