Health Affairs

Health Affairs, doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.28.2.w346 (Published online February 24, 2009) © 2009 by Project HOPE	New Online   Reinhardt: Post-Summit   Report from the Summit   President's Reform Proposal   Rising Medicare Costs   Spending for Immigrants   $2.5 Trillion U.S. Health Tab   Child Obesity Briefing

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Health Spending Projections Through 2018: Recession Effects Add Uncertainty To The Outlook

Andrea Sisko ^1*, Christopher Truffer ², Sheila Smith ³, Sean Keehan ⁴, Jonathan Cylus ⁵, John A. Poisal ⁶, M. Kent Clemens ⁷, Joseph Lizonitz ⁸

¹ The authors are with the Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore, Maryland. Andrea Sisko is an economist.
² Christopher Truffer is an actuary.
³ Sheila Smith is an economist.
⁴ Sean Keehan is an economist.
⁵ John Cylus is an economist.
⁶ John Poisal is deputy director.
⁷ Kent Clemens is an actuary.
⁸ Joseph Lizonitz is an actuary.

^*Corresponding author.

Abstract

During the projection period (2008-2018), average annual growth in national health spending is projected to be 6.2 percent--2.1 percentage points faster than average annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP). The health share of GDP is anticipated to rise rapidly from 16.2 percent in 2007 to 17.6 percent in 2009, largely as a result of the recession, and then climb to 20.3 percent by 2018. Public payers are expected to become the largest source of funding for health care in 2016 and are projected to pay for more than half of all national health spending in 2018. [Health Affairs 28, no. 2 (2009): w346-w357 (published online 24 February 2009; 10.1377/hlthaff.28.2.w346)]

Key Words: Consumer Issues, Health Reform, Hospitals, Medicaid, Medicare, Pharmaceuticals, Physicians, Health Spending

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