Health Affairs

Posting date: February 11, 2004

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Health Affairs, 10.1377/hlthaff.w4.79
Copyright © 2004 by Project HOPE

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Health Spending Projections Through 2013

Stephen Heffler ^1*, Sheila Smith ², Sean Keehan ³, M. Kent Clemens ⁴, Mark Zezza ⁵, Christopher Truffer ⁶

¹ Stephen Heffler is deputy director, Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, in Baltimore.
² Sheila Smith is an economist, Office of the Actuary, CMS.
³ Sean Keehan is an economist, Office of the Actuary, CMS.
⁴ Kent Clemens is an actuary, Office of the Actuary, CMS.
⁵ Mark Zezza is a statistician, Office of the Actuary, CMS.
⁶ Christopher Truffer is an actuary, Office of the Actuary, CMS.

^*Corresponding author.

Abstract

The rate of growth in national health expenditures is projected to fall to 7.8 percent in 2003 because of slower private and public spending growth. However, during the next ten years health spending growth is expected to outpace economic growth. As a result, the health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase from 14.9 percent in 2002 to 18.4 percent in 2013. The recently passed Medicare drug benefit legislation (not included in these projections) is not anticipated to have a large impact on overall national health spending, but it can be expected to cause sizable shifts in payment sources.

Key Words: Health Spending, Health Reform, Hospitals, Pharmaceuticals

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