Health Affairs

Posting date: April 5, 2005

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Health Affairs, 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.143
Copyright © 2005 by Project HOPE

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It's The Premiums, Stupid: Projections Of The Uninsured Through 2013

Todd Gilmer ^1* Richard Kronick ²

¹ Todd Gilmer is an assistant professor in the Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California, San Diego (UCSD) in La Jolla.
² Rick Kronick is a professor in that department and chief of the Division of Health Care Sciences, UCSD.

^*Corresponding author.

Abstract

Increases in the cost of health care from 1979 to 1999 accounted for the decline in health insurance coverage that occurred during that time period, as our earlier work demonstrated. Here we examine whether the model we presented adequately accounts for the observed changes in health insurance coverage from 1999 through 2002, and we show that the model accurately predicted the increase in uninsured people during that time period. Using the model and projections for national health spending, we project that the number of nonelderly uninsured Americans will grow from forty-five million in 2003 to fifty-six million by 2013.

Key Words: Access To Care, Business Of Health, Consumer Issues, Insurance Coverage, Insurance - Employer-Based System, Health Spending, Insurance Market

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