Posting date: February 23, 2005

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Health Affairs, 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.74
Copyright © 2005 by Project HOPE

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Trends: U.S. Health Spending Projections For 2004-2014

¹ The authors are in the Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in Baltimore, Maryland. Stephen Heffler is the director of the National Health Statistics Group.
² Sheila Smith is an economist in the National Health Statistics Group.
³ Sean Keehan is an economist in the National Health Statistics Group.
⁴ Christine Borger is an economist in the National Health Statistics Group.
⁵ Kent Clemens is an actuary in the National Health Statistics Group.
⁶ Chris Truffer is an economist in the National Health Statistics Group.

^*Corresponding author.

Abstract

National health spending growth is anticipated to remain stable at just over 7.0 percent through 2006, the result of diverging public- and private-sector spending trends. The faster public-sector spending growth is exemplified by the introduction of the new Medicare drug benefit in 2006. While this benefit is anticipated to have only a minor impact on overall health spending, it will result in a significant shift in funding from private payers and Medicaid to Medicare. By 2014, total health spending is projected to constitute 18.7 percent of gross domestic product, from 15.3 percent in 2003.

Key Words: Business Of Health, Health Reform, Hospitals, Long-Term Care, Medicare, Pharmaceuticals, Physicians, Health Spending, Insurance Market

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