Health Affairs

Posting date: September 26, 2005

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Health Affairs, 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r30
Copyright © 2005 by Project HOPE

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The Health And Cost Consequences Of Obesity Among The Future Elderly

Darius N. Lakdawalla ¹, Dana P. Goldman ^2*, Baoping Shang ³

¹ Darius Lakdawalla is an economist at RAND in Santa Monica, California.
² Dana Goldman is corporate chair and director of health economics at RAND in Santa Monica, California.
³ Baoping Shang is a fellow at the Pardee RAND Graduate School.

^*Corresponding author.

Abstract

Obesity could have serious consequences for older cohorts. We used a microsimulation to estimate lifetime costs, life expectancy, disease, and disability for seventy-year-olds based on body mass. Obese seventy-year-olds will live about as long as those of normal weight but will spend more than $39,000 more on health care. Moreover, they will enjoy fewer disability-free life years and experience higher rates of diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease. Medicare will spend about 34 percent more on an obese person than on someone of normal weight. Obesity might cost Medicare more than other diseases, because higher costs are not offset by reduced longevity.

Key Words: Chronic Care, Demography, Elderly, Health Promotion/Disease Prevention, Medicare, Research And Technology, Health Spending

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