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Posting date: September 26, 2005 Copyright © 2005 by Project HOPE
Consequences Of Health Trends And Medical Innovation For The Future Elderly
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Dana Goldman is corporate chair and director of health economics at RAND in Santa Monica, California.
*Corresponding author.
Recent innovations in biomedicine seem poised to revolutionize medical practice. At the same time, disease and disability are increasing among younger populations. This paper considers how these confluent trends will affect the elderly's health status and health care spending over the next thirty years. Because healthier people live longer, cumulative Medicare spending varies little with a beneficiary's disease and disability status upon entering Medicare. On the other hand, ten of the most promising medical technologies are forecast to increase spending greatly. It is unlikely that a "silver bullet" will emerge to both improve health and dramatically reduce medical spending. Key Words: Chronic Care, Demography, Elderly, Health Promotion/Disease Prevention, Medicare, Research And Technology, Health Spending
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