Posting date: September 26, 2005

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Health Affairs, 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r53
Copyright © 2005 by Project HOPE

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Technological Advances In Cancer And Future Spending By The Elderly

¹ Jay Bhattacharya is an assistant professor of medicine at Stanford University in Stanford, California.
² Baoping Shang is a fellow at the Pardee RAND Graduate School in Santa Monica, California.
³ Catherine Su is a radiation oncologist and clinical assistant professor, Department of Radiation Oncology, Stanford University School of Medicine.
⁴ Dana Goldman is corporate chair and director of health economics at RAND.

^*Corresponding author.

Abstract

This paper forecasts the consequences of scientific progress in cancer for total Medicare spending between 2005 and 2030. Because technological advance is uncertain, widely varying scenarios are modeled. A baseline scenario assumes that year 2000 technology stays frozen. A second scenario incorporates recent cancer treatment advances and their attendant discomfort. Optimistic scenarios analyzed include the discovery of an inexpensive cure, a vaccine that prevents cancer, and vastly improved screening techniques. Applying the Future Elderly Model, we find that no scenario holds major promise for guaranteeing the future financial health of Medicare.

Key Words: Chronic Care, Demography, Elderly, Health Promotion/Disease Prevention, Medicare, Research And Technology, Health Spending

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