Posting date: September 26, 2005

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Health Affairs, 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r67
Copyright © 2005 by Project HOPE

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Identifying Potential Health Care Innovations For The Future Elderly

¹ Paul Shekelle is director of the Evidence-Based Practice Center at RAND Health in Santa Monica, California, and a staff physician at the West Los Angeles Veterans Affairs Medical Center.
² Eduardo Ortiz is associate chief of staff and attending physician at the Washington, D.C., Veterans Affairs Medical Center and an associate professor of medicine at the George Washington University School of Medicine in Washington, D.C.
³ Sydne Newberry is a research communications analyst in the RAND Research Communications Group.
⁴ Michael Rich is an associate professor of medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, in St. Louis, Missouri.
⁵ Shannon Rhodes is a graduate student researcher in the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
⁶ Robert Brook is vice president of RAND and director of RAND Health.
⁷ Dana Goldman is corporate chair and director of health economics at RAND.

^*Corresponding author.

Abstract

We used a method that combined literature review and expert judgment to assess potential medical innovations for older adults. We evaluated innovations in four domains: cardiovascular disease, cancer, the biology of aging, and neurologic disease. The innovations can be categorized by common themes: improved disease prevention, better detection of subclinical or early clinical disease, and treatments for established disease. We report the likelihood, potential impact, and potential cost implications for thirty-four innovations, and we revisit this forecast five years later. Many of the innovations have the potential to greatly affect the costs and outcomes of health care.

Key Words: Chronic Care, Demography, Elderly, Health Promotion/Disease Prevention, Medicare, Research And Technology, Health Spending

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