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Physician Workforce

PERSPECTIVE

Gauging Supply And Demand: The Challenging Quest To Predict The Future Physician Workforce

As recently as 1980 the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) attempted to convince the nation of an impending physician oversupply, but failed. However, subsequent analyses supporting GMENAC’s predictions persuaded virtually all of the nation’s medical organizations, including the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), to sound alarms and adopt public positions advocating a decrease in the rate of physician supply. Now Richard Cooper and colleagues present a convincing argument to the contrary, predicting a serious, and growing, shortage of physicians. If nothing else, these conflicting reports make clear the extreme difficulty of projecting physician supply in the United . . . [Full Text of this Article]

GMENAC forecast.

 

HMO model.

 

Today’s reality.

 

Toward a better understanding.

 

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