Health Affairs, 22, no. 6 (2003): 199-206 doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.22.6.199 © 2003 by Project HOPE	New Online   How Would Obama, McCain Cover The Uninsured?   Cost To Cover Uninsured   Let Health IT Market Evolve   How Rate Health IT Progress?   HIV/AIDS In India, China

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The Future Of The Nurse Shortage: Will Wage Increases Close The Gap?

View larger version (29K): [in a new window]   EXHIBIT 1 Real Wage Growth For Registered Nurses (RNs) And Growth In RN Graduations, 1984–1999 SOURCES: Wages are from the Current Population Survey, Monthly Outgoing Rotation Groups. Number of graduates is from the National League for Nursing. The data from 1984 through 1995 were published in Bureau of Health Professions, Health Resources and Services Administration, United States Health Workforce Personnel Factbook, 2003, www.bhpr.hrsa.gov/healthworkforce/reports/factbook.htm (22 September 2003). Data for 1996–97 and 1997–98 are unofficial from the National League for Nursing and were published in L. Levine, A Shortage of Registered Nurses: Is It on the Horizon or Already Here? (Washington: Congressional Research Service, 18 May 2001). NOTE: Wages are measured in 1999 inflation-adjusted dollars.

View larger version (28K): [in a new window]   EXHIBIT 3 Projected Change In Shortage/Surplus Of Registered Nurses (RNs) When Wages Respond To Magnitude Of Shortage/Surplus, 2002–2020 SOURCE: Authors’ projections based on regression equations based on data from the Current Population Survey (U.S. Bureau of the Census), National League for Nursing, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Health Professions. NOTE: The projections are based on a regression equation with change in nursing graduations as the dependent variable and change in wages lagged four years as the independent variable. An intercept is included in the equation.

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