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Does The Aging Of The Population Really Drive The Demand For Health Care?
Uwe E. Reinhardt
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EXHIBIT 1 Relative Per Capita Health Spending, By Age Cohort (Age 35–44 Equals 1), 1999
SOURCE: E. Meara, C. White, and D.M. Cutler, "Trends in Medical Spending by Age: 1963–1999" (Unpublished paper, Harvard University, 27 March 2003).
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EXHIBIT 2 Projected Percentage Of The U.S. Population Age 65 And Older, 2000–2050
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Population Projections Program, "Projections of the Total Resident Population by Five-Year Age Groups, and Sex with Special Age Categories: Middle Series," various forecasting years, www.census.gov/population/www.projections/natsum-T3.html (24 September 2003).
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EXHIBIT 3 Effect Of Aging By Itself On The Growth Of Health Care Spending For The Non-Medicare Population, Selected Years 1991–2010
SOURCE: B.C. Strunk and P.B. Ginsburg, "Aging Plays Limited Role in Health Care Cost Trends," Data Bulletin (Washington: Center for Studying Health System Change, 23 September 2002), Figure 1.
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EXHIBIT 4 Age-Specific Use Of Hospital Care In The United States, By Age Cohort (Values For Ages 18–44 Equal 1), 2000
SOURCE: Author’s calculations based on data supplied by Julie Hudson, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, April 2003.
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EXHIBIT 5 Average Annual Growth In Health Care Spending Per Capita, By Age Cohort, 1963–1987 And 1987–1999
SOURCE: E. Meara, C. White, and D.M. Cutler, "Trends in Medical Spending by Age: 1963–1999" (Unpublished paper, Harvard University, 27 March 2003).
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