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HMO Plan Performance Update: An Analysis Of The Literature, 19972001
This paper synthesizes results from peer-reviewed literature published from 1997 to mid-2001, on various dimensions of health maintenance organization (HMO) plan performance. Results from seventy-nine studies suggest that both types of plans provide roughly comparable quality of care, while HMOs lower use of hospital and other expensive resources somewhat. At the same time, HMO enrollees report worse results on many measures of access to care and lower levels of satisfaction, compared with non-HMO enrollees. Quality-of-care results in particular are heterogeneous, which suggests that quality is not uniformthat it varies widely among providers, plans (HMO and non-HMO), and geographic areas.
As the life cycle of managed care continues to mature, policy interest in these plans performance remains high and research proliferates. This creates the need for periodic analyses of the varied literature studying health maintenance organizations (HMOs), vis-à-vis non-HMO plans. This paper updates our two previous literature analyses on this topic and concentrates on HMO performance.1 We focus on findings from studies on quality of care, the most contentious dimension of HMO plan performance. Negative press stories and anecdotal accounts abound about HMOs, especially about the quality of their care.2 The argument is being made, implicitly and explicitly, that eliminating HMOs would improve care throughout the health care system. We also review evidence on HMOs relative performance in the areas of access, satisfaction, prevention, and health care use and spending. We summarize findings on the effects that increasing HMO market share could have on community-wide measures including prevention, access, premiums, and spending. We also speculate on why we observed the pattern of results that we did and on the implications of recent developments for HMO plan performance in the future.
Literature analyses of HMO performance can be controversial. Unlike meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials with clear interventions, endpoints, and tightly defined protocols, studies of HMO performance rarely involve randomization of subjects, and the interventions, endpoints, settings, and measures are highly variable. Thus, it is difficult to simply "add" results together. Furthermore, whereas in a meta-analysis of controlled trials of similar patients it can make sense to give much more weight to a study with a larger sample size, it does not necessarily make sense to give proportional weight in a literature analysis to a study that happens to have many results, all of which may be affected by subtle issues of study design, the specific plans under investigation, or the regional or chronological setting of the study. On the other hand, a "one study, one result" rule would ignore the fact that some studies contain far more information than others do. For example, a study that assesses quality differences for six different diseases conveys more information than does one examining just one disease. Thus, we explore various dimensions or categories of performance (utilization, satisfaction, quality, and so on), and studies can contribute observations to one or more dimension. Sometimes a study will address different diseases or conditions, and these will each be treated as separate observations. Other times, however, multiple measures are lumped within a single observation. For example, nine different measures of access to care in the same study would be assessed together. Thus, there may be multiple results assigned to a given observation, and these results may differ with respect to their level of statistical significance and even the direction of the effect. Our classification approach attempts to capture this variability. In the quality category, the assessment of findings is even more complicatedand more importantas they have substantial policy implications. The additional complication arises from the fact that it is not always clear what measures should be used. For example, is a lower rate of certain interventions an indicator of poor quality if there is no clear evidence in the literature that outcomes are worse? Is a patients assessment of "quality" quality or satisfaction? (We consider it to be the latter.) More generally, the heterogeneity of the health system, of diseases and conditions that can be studied, of quality of data available, of quality of methods used, and of measures for each disease or condition means that there are alternative ways to summarize and score results from published articles. Consequently, we provide some detail on how we selected articles, produced observations, scored results, and generated subanalyses. Our goal is to make our methods as transparent as possible. We use the following terminology: Study results refer to (sometimes many) specific comparisons reported on in an article (but not yet summarized by us); a finding is our assessment of those study results for a category of performance. Article selection. We used several methods to identify articles that potentially met our criteria. (1) We conducted Medline searches, using the following keywords: [(managed care) or HMO or (health maintenance organization) or prepaid) and (indemnity) or (preferred provider organization) or PPO or PPOs or fee-for-service or (traditional insurance) or (non-HMO) or (regular Medicare)] or (HMO market share) or (HMO market penetration) or (managed care market penetration). This identified more than 75 percent of the articles. (2) We conducted article-by-article reviews of the journals with the most comparisons in previous literature analyses, including Health Affairs, Health Services Research, Inquiry, Journal of the American Medical Association, and Medical Care. (3) We examined references cited in more recently published articles. (4) We examined references accumulated by the authors for other purposes. We included articles that met the following criteria: (1) Article was published in a peer-reviewed journal in 1997 to June 2001. (2) Study included HMO enrolleesin most cases without PPO enrollees, but in some cases combined with PPO enrollees (we called the HMO/PPO combination "managed care"); as a result, we did not include one study of PPOs only, or three studies of utilization management for indemnity enrollees who did not have to see physicians that were part of a network or organization that contracted with the health plan. (3) Article focused on plans that provided coverage for most medical servicesso we excluded articles on workers compensation, managed behavioral health carve-outs, and Medicaid plans that were restricted to primary care case management. We also excluded numerous studies that focused on HMOs effects on physicians. (4) Article included a reasonable contemporaneous comparison group, with a reasonable attempt to statistically adjust for differences between the HMO and non-HMO groups; we also included one pre/post study on TennCare, a Medicaid systemwide change, in which researchers attempted to statistically adjust for (the small) differences between managed care populations before and after the change.3 Among articles excluded were those in which the comparison group came mostly or completely from a different geographic area, was selected in a manner somewhat different from the HMO group, or likely had different clinical data quality from the HMO group. In each instance, differences in performance could be attributed to such factors rather than to the HMO. We also excluded articles that did not rely on detailed clinical data when there was potential for sizable differences in unmeasured clinical characteristics. In all, we reviewed dozens of articles that contained some valuable information but did not meet our criteria for inclusion in this comparison.4 Categories of study findings. We created several categories of findings: quality, prevention, access, satisfaction, utilization (different types), spending, and premiums. An article could contribute more than one finding if it produced evidence for more than one category of performance (for example, quality, prevention, and utilization); different diseases and conditions; different types of health plans or delivery systems (for example, group-model HMOs and [separately] independent practice association [IPA]model HMOs); different geographic areas, where HMO performance in each area was analyzed separately (for example, one study produced three findings for quality of care: for northern California, for the Los Angeles region, and for southern California other than LA); and Medicare and (separately) non-Medicare beneficiaries in the same area (this produces two findings).5 Conversely, two or more articles from the same underlying study would be combined to contribute one finding for the same category, population, and disease or condition if the articles used different measures for the same concept or used data for adjacent time periods.6 We did not create separate findings where one set of results was a subset of another (for example, one article reported results for quality for coronary article bypass graft [CABG] surgery in southern Florida, whereas another reported on all of Florida).7 Thus, for each study a finding summarized the specific results for each performance category. Some findings simply reflected the sole result for the performance category. In many cases, however, the finding summarized multiple results (for example, a study of adverse maternal outcomes included maternal death, cardiac arrest, excessive blood loss, anesthesia complications, lacerations and trauma to perineum, and eclampsia). Scoring. We attempted to score each finding based on the direction and statistical significance of the study results. We created the following spectrum of findings, from those most favorable to those least favorable to HMOs: (1) F s: favorable to HMOs and statistically significant (compared with non-HMO plans); (2) F s, ns: favorable to HMOs with favorable significant and nonsignificant evidence and (if any) nonsignificant unfavorable evidence; (3) F/M s, ns: mixed evidence, with more statistically significant favorable than unfavorable results; (4) F ns: favorable with only nonsignificant evidence; (5) Mixed: evidence for HMO and non-HMO enrollees that had both favorable and unfavorable nonsignificant results and/or that had an equal number of favorable and unfavorable statistically significant results; (6) Same: evidence that was reported as being "similar" (not statistically different) but no data (or direction of differences) were presented in the tables or text, or evidence that had a tie in performance, or had findings with nonsignificantly different results that were no more than 5 percent different from each other (for example, satisfaction rates of 68 percent and 65 percent would be considered equivalent, if that difference was nonsignificant). For findings that were unfavorable to HMOs, we created the mirror-image of the favorable scores: UF ns; UF/M s, ns; UF s, ns; and UF s. Generally, we focus our discussion on findings with the first three and last three scoresthat is, those findings with statistically significant evidence that was predominantly favorable or predominantly unfavorable to HMO plans, compared with non-HMO arrangements. We also created more detailed findings for subcategories of quality performanceone finding each for mortality outcomes, morbidity outcomes, and process measures that are indicative of qualityto see whether or not HMO versus non-HMO comparisons differed by type of quality measure. For example, if a study had one mortality result, multiple morbidity outcome results, and multiple process-of-care quality results, we created three detailed findings, one for each type of quality measure, using the same scoring method described above. We included a finding in mortality outcomes if the study measured either actual mortality or HMO enrollees use of hospitals or surgeons with higher- or lower-than-average (or median) mortality. To further examine patterns of findings when data were sufficient, we examined subcategories of diseases or location. In our prior literature analyses, the Medical Outcomes Study and the Medicare Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (TEFRA) evaluation contributed a disproportionately large number of findings, because they were large, comprehensive studies of multiple domains of performance. The largest study this time, the Community Tracking Study (CTS), contributed nine findings, or less than 8 percent of the total, for seven different categories of performance. For CTS comparisons by type of enrollee, we took results from the most recent summary of results, which could use more accurate enrollee insurance status information than did three prior CTS analyses.8
We developed 141 findings from 79 articles. All but six findings were based on at least some data from 1990 forward.
Quality.
Quality-of-care findings for HMO plans were roughly comparable to those for non-HMO plans (Exhibit 1
When we compared findings in three diagnostic categories (cancer, heart-related, and "other"), we found some differences, although the numbers of findings were small in each category (Exhibit 2
In our last review of the literature, there were indications of a pattern of worse care for frail elders and the chronically ill, based on three findings negative to HMOs.10 For this review, of the four findings for stroke and frail elders, two were unfavorable to HMOs and none were favorable, although the studies showing negative findings were not as comprehensive as in the past.11 Medicare HMOs had comparatively negative findings relative to Medicare fee-for-service (FFS): Of the sixteen findings, eight were unfavorable, whereas only four were favorable.12 The pattern of findings was more favorable to HMOs in California than elsewhere. Of fourteen California findings, seven were predominantly favorable to HMOs, and three were predominantly unfavorable. Only two studies reported separate results for group- and IPA/network-model HMO performance compared with non-HMO plans. One showed favorable findings for the group-model and no difference for the non-group-model HMOs, relative to PPO/indemnity plans.13 The other found that both types of HMOs had nonsignificant findings compared with non-HMO plans.14 Another study suggested more favorable group-model HMO performance relative to that of IPA/network-model HMOs but did not make a direct comparison.15 Only six other findings had a clearly identified type of HMO plan (four findings for group models, two for IPA/networks)too few studies to permit any generalizations about performance differences among HMO models.16 There was even less information on plan ownership (for-profit versus not-for-profit)again making generalizations impossible.
The overall pattern of findings changed little when we compared HMO versus non-HMO performance using seventy-three findings categorized by mortality and morbidity outcomes and quality-of-care process measures (Exhibit 3
Access. Access-to-care findings were more likely to be relatively unfavorable to HMOs (Exhibit 4
Measures of access varied greatly; examples include the percentage of enrollees having a usual source of care; difficulty in contacting their usual provider; difficulty in getting an appointment; an unmet need; or the need to travel more than a certain distance to get care. In some instances, a trade-off between access and quality may be appropriate: For example, when HMOs channel their patients to hospitals with better outcomes for CABG surgery, these patients typically have to travel farther than to the nearest facility. Seven findings contained evidence on the association between various access-to-care measures and greater HMO or HMO/PPO penetrationat the practice, community, or state levels. We discuss those below under "communitywide effects."
Satisfaction.
Satisfaction findings were consistently unfavorable to HMOs (Exhibit 5
Many specific results (as opposed to summary findings) on a wide range of measures of patient/physician interpersonal communication and quality of services were especially unfavorable to HMOs. The few specific results that were favorable to HMOs pertained to costs of care, getting care at one location, preventive counseling, and confidence that the physician would not do unneeded tests.20 In our two past analyses of literature on enrollee satisfaction, there was clear evidence of a trade-off for HMO enrollees: greater satisfaction with financial aspects of their plan than in FFS, along with less satisfaction with nonfinancial plan attributes. However, for this analysis only one study provided direct evidence on satisfaction with costs in an HMO plan, making it impossible to determine whether such a trade-off persists. Most studies of satisfaction did not compare performance among types of HMO plans. However, the one study that did make multiple comparisons showed that in the Boston area IPA/network enrollees were somewhat more satisfied than group-model enrollees were: Among nine specific satisfaction result comparisons, two were predominantly favorable and four were predominantly unfavorable to group-model HMOs.21 Group- and IPA/network-model HMO enrollees were much more satisfied than were staff-model HMO enrollees. Also, one study showed that satisfaction with different types of plans (HMO and non-HMO alike) is lower when there is no choice of plans, compared to having a choice.22
Prevention.
Findings on prevention (mostly cancer screening) were consistently favorable to HMOs (Exhibit 6
Coverage of some preventive services is more comprehensive in HMOs. For prevention activities where coverage was likely to be more comprehensive for HMOs compared to non-HMO plans (for example, fecal occult blood tests, flu shots, mammograms, pap smears, and proctoscopic exams), twelve of thirty-one results were predominantly favorable to HMOs and none were predominantly unfavorable. For prevention activities where coverage was likely to be equivalent in HMO and non-HMO plans (for example, blood pressure checks, clinical breast exams, digital rectal exams, and smoking advice), two of nine results were predominantly favorable to HMOs and none were predominantly unfavorable. Use and spending. Ambulatory care use. Although measures or reporting of ambulatory care use varied among the ten findings from nine studies, overall there appeared to be few differences. Three studies found no discernible difference in the number of HMO and non-HMO ambulatory care visits per enrollee.24 Two studies found no significant differences in the percentage of enrollees with at least one visit.25 Three studies examined the percentage of enrollees with at least one physician visit and the number of visits per user but did not test for differences in numbers of visits per enrollee: Of those, two found higher likelihood of some use for HMO enrollees but no difference in number of visits for users; another found no difference for either type of measure.26 For specialist use, one study found significantly lower likelihood of a specialist visit among HMO enrollees, whereas another found no difference.27 One finding on overall ambulatory care resource use showed lower utilization for HMO compared with non-HMO enrollees.28 Hospital admissions. There was little evidence of differences in hospital admission rates for HMOs compared with non-HMOs, based on eight findings from eight studies.29
Hospital length-of-stay.
Of ten findings from ten studies, five showed statistically significantly shorter HMO hospital lengths-of-stay, ranging from 4.4 percent to 13.9 percent lower.30 None of the other five findings showed discernible differences in length-of-stay (Exhibit 7
Hospital use per enrollee. Of two findings from two studies, one showed that Medicare HMO enrollees had many fewer inpatient days per enrollee than did Medicare FFS beneficiaries with either Medigap insurance (32.1 percent fewer) or an employer benefit supplement (23.8 percent fewer).32 In contrast, the CTS appeared to find few differences in overall hospital use between various types of privately insured, nonelderly HMO, PPO, and indemnity insurance enrollees.33 One study found nonsignificant higher hospital spending per enrollee for a relatively small group of frail elders.34 Several explanations are possible for the major difference in findings for the first two studies, which have large national samples. One is that HMOs might affect use of hospitals more for the elderly Medicare population (which has relatively high use, on average) than for a younger commercial population (which has relatively low use, on average). Another is the well-documented favorable selection experienced by Medicare risk-contract HMOs. Hospital charges per admission. The one study that reported on hospital charges per admission showed that HMO enrollees incurred significantly lower charges than did non-HMO enrollees.35 The one study on hospital-related expenditures per enrollee showed no significant differences.36
Use of other expensive resources.
Of fifteen findings from thirteen studies, eight showed predominantly lower use of more costly resources in HMOs than in non-HMOs, while none showed significantly higher use (Exhibit 8
Overall costs per enrollee. One study of a commercially insured population found that total insured health care costs per enrollee were significantly lower for HMO enrollees than for non-HMO enrollees.38 Another study of persons with musculoskeletal conditions found no significant difference.39 Summary of use and cost findings. Overall, HMOs appeared to use fewer resources. Although there was no clear pattern in the findings for hospital admissions, lengths-of-stay tended to be somewhat shorter for HMO enrollees: The combination of the two patterns of findings suggests less hospital use per enrollee. The only study explicitly measuring hospital days per enrollee confirmed that implied finding.40 There were no clear differences in physician visits, but there was clearly less use of expensive resources in HMOs than in non-HMOs. The pattern of findings for physician visits (no clear differences among plans) and use of expensive resources (less use for HMO versus non-HMO plans) are similar to those in our 1994 and 1997 literature analyses. The pattern of findings for hospital use (shorter lengths-of-stay but no clear pattern for hospital admissions or use per enrollee) falls in between those for our two prior analyses. In the 1994 analysis there were clear indications of less hospital usesomewhat lower hospital admissions (albeit not large differences) and both shorter lengths-of-stay and fewer hospital days per enrolleefor HMOs. In the 1997 analysis there was no clear pattern for hospital use. Given that managed care grew rapidly to contain the rate of increase of health care spending, the lack of clear evidence about hospital utilization warrants comment. There are several potential explanations: Among them, HMOs may create incentives for FFS plans to contain hospital use, including shorter lengths-of-stay, to be competitive. On the Medicare side, the diagnosis-related group (DRG) system of payment creates incentives for shorter lengths-of-stay. It can be argued that while comprehensive disease management could reduce hospital admissions, it requires consistent, proactive care; the inconsistent use of disease management programs in HMOs may account for the lack of clearly lower admissions in HMOs compared with non-HMOs. Studies with both quality and utilization outcomes. Fewer than a third of the studies with quality findings (eleven of thirty-six) also had findings with some measure of utilization. According to the stereotypical positions in the managed care debate, the anti-HMO side would argue that HMOs lower utilization at the expense of quality, and the pro-HMO side would argue that HMOs lower utilization with no change, or an improvement, in quality. Of the eleven studies, four support the first position and two support the latter.41 Five findings support neither "pure" stereotype, as they show no discernible difference in utilization between HMOs and non-HMOs; of those, two showed relatively higher HMO quality, one showed relatively lower HMO quality, and two showed similar quality of care.42 That is, five findings showed lower HMO quality with the same or lower utilization, while four findings showed higher HMO quality with the same or lower utilization. Communitywide effects associated with market penetration. Fourteen findings provide evidence on the association of various outcomes at the community level with higher HMO or HMO/PPO market penetration. Although causality can be difficult to assess, these associations (or effects) may be due either to the direct effect of HMOs or HMOs/PPOs on their enrollees or to the indirect "spillover" effects of HMOs on non-HMOs or on uncompensated care. The reverse causality could be involved if HMOs are attracted to areas in which these communitywide differences are under way or already in place. Some of the studies attempt to address this issue of causality using various econometric techniques.43 Generally, the findings are in the expected directions: Higher HMO or HMO/PPO penetration rates are associated with less access; more prevention; less use of expensive resources; and lower employer health plan premiums, Medicare FFS expenditures, and hospital cost growth. Access. Three findings on access indicated predominantly unfavorable managed care effects. Charity care hours provided per week by physicians was negatively associated with a higher percentage of managed care (HMO/PPO) revenues in the physician practice.44 Uncompensated care provided by not-for-profit hospitals was negatively associated with greater Medicaid managed care presence in a state; this is an unfavorable finding if one assumes that charity care as a percentage of uncompensated care would remain the same or decline, although it may also indicate that there is less need because the state provides more Medicaid coverage.45 The percentage of uninsured low-income persons having a usual source of care or ambulatory care visits was negatively associated with a higher percentage of Medicaid managed care in the state; the percentage of uninsured low-income persons with ambulatory care visits was negatively associated with high overall managed care (HMO/PPO) penetration.46 Other findings on the association between access, outcomes, and HMO or HMO/PPO market penetration were mixed (for insured low-income persons), statistically insignificant, or apparently unfavorable to HMOs but not tested.47 Prevention. One finding showed that the percentage of FFS-covered women adhering to breast cancer screening guidelines for mammograms was positively associated with a higher level of HMO market penetration.48 Use of more costly resources. One finding showed lower per capita use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in communities with higher HMO penetration.49 Premiums. One finding showed that lower health plan costs for employers were associated with high levels of HMO market penetration, as a result of both lower HMO than non-HMO premiums and lower non-HMO premiums.50 A different type of finding showed no evidence of cost shifting by HMOs from Medicare to commercial premiums.51 Spending. Two related findings for the 19861990 and 19901994 periods showed slightly lower (but still statistically significant) Medicare Parts A and B FFS expenditures associated with higher HMO market penetration.52 Two other findings on managed care market penetration and hospital cost growth showed somewhat similar associations. High HMO and PPO penetration was associated with reductions in hospital cost growth in highly competitive hospital markets, with the HMO effect being approximately double that of PPOs.53 Another showed that hospital cost inflation (spending growth) between 1985 and 1993 in six of eight years was negatively associated with high levels of HMO market penetrationin all, lowering absolute hospital spending levels by 7.8 percent by 1993.54
This literature analysis produced results similar to those in our two previous analyses. Compared with non-HMOs, HMOs had roughly comparable quality of care, more prevention activities, less use of hospital days and other expensive resources, and lower access and satisfaction ratings. What is noteworthy is the greater depth of studies on quality of care meeting our criteriathirty-six over the four-and-a-half-year period, compared with fifteen in the prior three-year periodwhich permitted a better assessment of quality of care in the different types of plans. This increase reflects the greater importance of HMOs in the health care system (which meant more HMO-related data), more interest among researchers in conducting the comparisons, and greater interest in quality on the part of funding agencies. At the same time, the eight studies or so per year on quality of care is a very small number in the context of an exceptionally heterogeneous health care system with hundreds of large HMO plans and delivery systems having different payment methods to physician organizations and individual physicians; different utilization management, prevention, and disease management programs; and dozens of conditions and diseases for which interesting and useful analyses could be conducted. Given that heterogeneity, an increase in the number of studies by a magnitude of ten or even one hundred would be needed to understand the extent of, and reasons for, true differences in plan performance in HMOs and non-HMOs. Many times more findings still would be needed to help consumers to determine the quality of care in their geographic area. One study on quality of cancer care exemplifies the heterogeneity in health plan and delivery system performance.55 We counted one overall result (HMO mixed/favorable) for data pooled across eight HMO versus non-HMO comparisons. Yet that study produced evidence for each HMO versus non-HMO comparison, for two measures of quality of breast cancer treatment. If each of the eight HMO comparisons had been a separate finding, they would show highly varied findings: three predominantly favorable and two predominantly unfavorable findings, and three more with nonsignificant results. What we need to know is not simply the "counts of findings" but why there is such variability across HMOs. Study limitations. In addition to the relatively small number of studies, numerous issues force one to be cautious about any generalizations about plan performance. The following are but a few examples. Selection bias within the studies. In a majority of findings with direct HMO versus non-HMO comparisons, HMO enrollees either were younger or had a pattern of somewhat fewer comorbidities. In general, the studies we included attempted to control for such differences, but such controls may be inadequate, biasing findings in favor of HMO plans. Selection of research topic bias. This is a far greater concern than is the issue of publication bias. Research topics are not proposed (or funded) at random. What gets examined depends on data availability and on researchers and funding agencies interest in the topic. Researchers might choose topics to highlight (or test) the apparent strengths or weaknesses of HMOswhich is certainly possible in an environment with heated feelings for and against HMOs. Misclassification of plan types. Recent research indicates that a large percentage of enrollees do not know which type of plan they are in. In one study more than four-fifths of persons in FFS plans incorrectly identified themselves as being in managed care.56 Methods for reliably determining health plan status varied greatly among studies, and some studies did not ask additional questions or use statistical matching techniques to improve the reliability of the data. Moreover, many studies relied on hospital administrative databases, in which the reliability of health plan information is unclear. Creation and scoring of findings. For a literature synthesis such as this, any method to create and score findings will have shortcomings, the result of trade-offs necessary to generate "bottom-line" results. For example, we did not (and could not) assign weights to reflect the relative importance of one indicator over another in the many cases where several study results had to be combined to produce a "finding." Responding to an earlier critique. After our last literature review, Kip Sullivan argued that our past findings were biased in favor of HMOs because we did not adjust for the fact that HMOs tend to provide more comprehensive coverage than non-HMO plans do.57 Adjust for those differences, the argument goes, and HMO findings would be much less favorable. This argument is flawed because it ignores the fact that plans are selected on the basis of a "bundle" of characteristics or attributes, not just one. In general, HMOs tend to have more-comprehensive coverage (that is, fewer price constraints on demand), combined with more nonprice constraintsnarrower networks and other nonprice attempts (gatekeepers and prior authorizations) to limit specialist visits and expensive services. Non-HMO plans tend to have less comprehensive coverage (that is, more price constraints on demand) but fewer nonprice constraints. Sullivans proposal holds constant only one part of the "bundle" coverage, ignoring the other. FFS plans with comprehensive coverage and few nonprice constraints on demand have high utilization, high premiums, and few insured persons. Although the Canadian-style single-payer FFS system has few price restrictions, it too must constrain demandthrough overall budgets, long-range resource planning, and queuing. Also flawed is an additional argument that the apparent comparability of quality is because Medicare, as a result of inadequate risk-adjustment methods, overpays HMOs, which can therefore offer better coverage (such as outpatient prescription drugs), leading to better outcomes than would have been the case without the overpayment. Implicitly, HMO quality is as good as it appears only because HMOs use more resources than FFS plans use. There is evidence that Medicare overpaid Medicare HMOs by approximately 67 percent, according to two estimates.58 However, the implication with respect to quality is flawed, since it ignores the fact that many FFS Medicare beneficiaries, employers, or Medicaid pay extra for supplemental insurance coverage and that beneficiaries also incur copayments, deductibles, and other out-of-pocket expenses. These payments add substantially more resources for FFS than for HMO enrollees. As a result, while FFS Medicare beneficiaries may use fewer Medicare-financed dollars (risk-adjusted) than their HMO counterparts use, they almost certainly use more real resources in toto. In fact, if quality is comparable for HMO and non-HMO plans, then many HMO enrollees who have a choice among plans seem willing to accept lower satisfaction for lower out-of-pocket payments. Based on the findings from the articles reviewed here and in the past, the trade-off overall does not appear to be one of lower quality of care for lower out-of-pocket payments. We note, however, that not all enrollees have a choice of plans, and this may be a source of some of the backlash against managed care.
Our findings suggest that HMOs and non-HMOs provide roughly comparable quality of care, while HMOs lower the use of hospital and other expensive resources. At the same time, HMOs reduce many measures of access to care and are associated with lower levels of enrollee satisfaction, compared with non-HMOs. Quality-of-care research results, however, are particularly heterogeneous, which suggests that quality varies greatly among providers, plans (HMO and non-HMO), and geographic areas. Managed care (both HMOs and PPOs) expanded rapidly in the early 1980s in response to rapid health care inflation; this expansion was accompanied by public-sector cost containment measures, including the implementation of DRGs and the resource-based relative value scale (RBRVS) for physician payment in Medicare. These were efforts to contain the ever-growing health care share of gross domestic product. Not stated was the implicit trade-offthat something in terms of quality of care, satisfaction, or access to care might have to be given up in exchange for cost containment. Recent evidence indicates that, overall, the tradeoff has not been as severe as some had fearedHMOs have led to lower costs, and while access and satisfaction seem to have suffered, quality of care has been comparable for all types of enrollees combined. At the same time, most (but not all) HMOs have not accomplished what their proponents had promised: changing clinical practice processes and improving quality of care relative to the existing system, while containing costs for both purchasers and consumers. In part, whether or not HMOs could achieve this promise could not really be tested, because the developments that some HMO proponents had hoped for generally have not yet been put in place. These include the following: (1) Purchasers and plans would have to hold plans and provider organizations accountable for defined populations and set quality standards, require performance measurement, reward high performance organizations, and risk-adjust payment rates to compensate for the resulting migration of sicker patients to organizations with higher performance; (2) consumers would have to be educated about performance scores so that they could respond to reported quality measures; and (3) provider organizations would have to implement new information technology (IT)in particular, electronic medical recordsthat would enable them to measure and report performance to consumers and purchasers, generate data needed to risk-adjust payment rates, and reengineer clinical processes to improve quality. While these developments could improve all care, including in the non-HMO sector, it is easier to create accountability with the defined populations of the HMO sector. Although such developments have not been widespread, some important changes are taking place. First, there is some movement in the direction of having purchasers and plans reward quality performancefor example, the Leapfrog Groups efforts to set standards, and California HMOs "pay-for-performance" proposal. Second, consumers are increasing their health care knowledge, thanks in part to the Internet. This understanding and the potential for more gains in the future in turn make it more possible for consumers to demand more information and to comprehend and act upon comparable quality information from health plans and providerswhen it is made available. Third, developments over the past decade in the IT industry in general, and health IT industry specifically, mean that implementation of advanced clinical information systems, especially electronic medical record systems, is much more possible now than ever before. The consistently mixed quality-of-care results for HMO versus non-HMO plans over the past two decades suggests that for HMOs to meet the vision of their advocates and as a whole outperform PPO and indemnity plan quality of care, nothing less than a systematic revamping of health care information systems, incentives, and clinical processes may be required. It remains to be seen whether such a revamping will occur. If it does not, HMOs will likely be but a footnote in the history of U.S. health care. If it does occur, then we still will have to see if HMOs not only improve care for their own enrollees but also raise the standards for all. Unfortunately, the jury is still out on whether this vision can be achieved.
Robert Miller is associate professor of health economics in residence at the Institute for Health and Aging, Institute for Health Policy Studies, and Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF). Hal Luft is the Caldwell B. Esselstyn Professor of Health Policy and Health Economics and directs the Institute for Health Policy Studies at UCSF. This research was funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. An earlier version was presented at the Council on the Economic Impact of Health System Change, Eighth Princeton Conference: The Future of Managed Care, held in Princeton, New Jersey, in May 2001. The authors received helpful comments on the earlier version from conference participants and from fellows and faculty at the Institute for Health Policy Studies and Institute for Health and Aging Writing Seminar.
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